## How to Write a Good Introduction | The Writing Center at MSU

I took it as a opinion essay and wrote 287 words consisting of introduction, first positive its safer. second positive point it creates sense of community and gives people opportunity to socialize as they get a chance to meet often at places like gym, swimming pool or parks which most compounds/apartment blocks provide.

Last paragraph was conclusion where i reiterated my opinion.

Many thanks for your good materials for IELTS study.

I would like to ask something regarding expressions in the introduction part of writing task 2.

Some recommend expressions such as â€śThis essay agree thatâ€¦.., Firstly, this essay will discussâ€¦., Secondly, it will discuss other â€¦â€¦..â€ť in the introduction part.

## Introduction to Research for Essay Writing | Coursera

Firstly, I want to thank you for putting up this website. I will be taking my exam this May and I find your website very useful and easy to understand. I do have a question on the introduction of the model essay, Iâ€™m confused as when to use however in a sentence. I know it is a linking word used to contrast but from the paragraph above, is it applicable to use however? In my understanding, however is used to disagree with the first statement which is â€śSocial networking sites, for instance Facebook, are thought by some to have hadâ€¦â€ť In this case disagreeing with it means that your opinion is that you donâ€™t agree with the first sentence but at the end of the paragraph, you stated that you are agreeing with the statement. Shouldnâ€™t we omit the word however instead?

## How to Write an Essay Under Exam Conditions | History â€¦

Hi liz, thanks for the good work. In writing task 2 essays, can I have the main ideas in the introductory paragraph while they are developed in the body paragraphs?

## 10 minutes - You will have a specified time to write each essay

or you could just add their logarithms:

It starts out as fairly unlikely that a woman has breast cancer - ourcredibility level is at -20 decibels. Then three test resultscomein, corresponding to 9, 13, and 5 decibels of evidence. Thisraises the credibility level by a total of 27 decibels, meaning thattheprior credibility of -20 decibels goes to a posterior credibility of 7decibels. So the odds go from 1:99 to 5:1, and the probabilitygoes from 1% to around 83%.

Just for fun, try and work this one out in your head. You don'tneed to be exact - a rough estimate is good enough. When you'reready, continue onward.

According to a study performed by Lawrence Phillips and Ward Edwards in1966, most people, faced with this problem, give an answer in the range70% to 80%. Did you give a substantially higher probability thanthat? If you did, congratulations - Ward Edwards wrote that veryseldom does a person answer this question properly, even if the personis relatively familiar with Bayesian reasoning. The correctansweris 97%.

The likelihood ratio for the test result "red chip" is 7/3, while thelikelihood ratio for the test result "blue chip" is 3/7. Thereforea blue chip is exactly the same amount of evidence as a red chip, justin the other direction - a red chip is 3.6 decibels of evidence for thered bag, and a blue chip is -3.6 decibels of evidence. If youdrawone blue chip and one red chip, they cancel out. So the of red chips to blue chipsdoes not matter; only the of red chips over blue chips matters. There were eight red chipsand four blue chips in twelve samples; therefore, four red chips than bluechips. Thus the posterior odds will be:

^{4}^{4}which is around 30:1, i.e., around 97%.

The prior credibility starts at 0 decibels and there's a total ofaround 14 decibels of evidence, and indeed this corresponds to odds ofaround 25:1 or around 96%. Again, there's some rounding error,butif you performed the operations using exact arithmetic, the resultswould be identical.

We can now see that the bookbag problem would have exactly the same answer, obtainedinjust the same way, if sixteen chips were sampled and we found ten redchips and six blue chips.

What is the sequence of arithmetical operations that you performed tosolve this problem?

(45%*30%) / (45%*30% + 5%*70%)

Similarly, to find the chance that a woman with positive mammographyhas breast cancer, we computed:

The fully general form of this calculation is known as or

Given some phenomenon A that we want to investigate, and an observationX that is evidence about A - for example, in the previous example, A isbreast cancer and X is a positive mammography - Bayes' Theorem tells ushow we should ourprobability of A, given the X.

By this point, Bayes' Theorem may seem blatantly obvious or eventautological, rather than exciting and new. If so, thisintroduction has in its purpose.

So why is it that some people are so about Bayes' Theorem?

"Do you believe that a nuclear war will occur in the next 20 years?

## Aim to spend roughly 10 minutes (or more) planning and thinking

personally I would like to speak for this statement. What has been put forward in this essay a good reflection of what I express as my own feelingsâ€¦.(as a conclution)